MECCA AGREEMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

Mecca  Joint Defence Agreement, the trilateral military pact  is the new kid on the block of International geo strategic scenario and groupings. With the signing of the accord between Turkiye, Saudi  Arabia and  Pakistan, they have pledged that an armed attack against any one of the three member nations will be deemed as an attack against all three. This clause is verbatim from NATO’s article 5 collective defence clause. The accord was preceded by a similar Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan earlier in September 2025. The Mecca  agreement has been signed in the midst of a violent and bloody Iran war, where Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have been at the receiving end from Iran. The three countries coming together bring their individual strengths together, Saudis bring the finances, Turkiye military technology and Pakistan provides the human resource and the nuclear option. 

There is a history behind this cooperation also, Saudis have always been the bankers for all Pakistani misadventures and have been known to  bankrolling their nuclear quest also in the past. Pakistan has been providing troops in return as and when required by the Kingdom. In fact Gen Raheel Sharif was chosen to lead a 39 nation Security force in Saudi Arabia after his retirement in 2017 for counter terror operations. During OP SINDOOR, Turkiye provided Pakistan with 350 Drones as also the technical hands to operate and train the Pak Army. So military to military cooperation between the three nations is not something recently invented.

The timing of signing of the accord at this juncture is crucial, as US has been unable to protect his allies from a belligerent Iran. In fact they have had to face the brunt of Iranian ire, as US main land remains too distant and out of reach for Iranian retaliation. Obviously the countries in the Middle East need to protect their interests and this kind of consolidation is on expected lines. The Saudi-Pak accord last year was looked at favourably even by Iran.  Trump too has hailed the agreement, as it helps him reduce the American footprints in the Gulf, though retaining his control through these proxies. Israel under the current regime does not appear to be in a conciliatory mood and the Arab world realises that they need a joint effort to respond to any threats emanating from Jerusalem. 

Pakistan has a number of reasons to be pleased with this development, firstly, after the debacle in recent OP SINDOOR, they desperately need some backup support. Secondly, this gives them an opportunity to consolidate their aspirations of  being part of the Arab world, which is their need to resolve their identity crisis since their birth in 1947. Pakistan had been a member of the now defunct SEATO and CENTO too in the Cold War era, and benefitted from the Western largesses during that era too. It is obviously looking for similar doles from the other members this time around.

There is a paradigm shift in the security scenario as prevalent in the region with the signing of the accord. Although the finer details are still being worked out, but it is already being heralded as an Islamic NATO, with Egypt, Syria and even Bangladesh expressing interest in joining the bandwagon. India is concerned and keenly observing the developments. India has excellent business and trade relationship with Saudi Arabia and it is unlikely that in an event with Pakistan they would actively keep their part of the bargain. Turkiye is a different matter, under Erdogan they have been pro Pakistan quite openly, hence their active support must be taken into account in all scenarios.

Bangladesh may also turn out to be an irritant, as by themselves they can do precious little but they will have some nuisance value nevertheless.

Bismarck was reported to have said that “A treaty with Russia is not worth the paper it is written on.” Treaties are signed during peace time with the right intent, but each nations weighs the pros and cons and responds to the situation to suit its own interests. This stands true irrespective of the specific country. Hitler did not honour the No War pact with erstwhile USSR. Even amongst the Arab countries Iran is at loggerheads with most, although it has welcomed the agreement, as it perceives this as reduction of American influence in the region. But unlikely that its neighbours would be enthused by Iran joining the agreement. Russia and China are obviously pleased as American control over the Gulf is on the wane. India must keep her ear to the ground and further strengthen our relationship with friendly Arab nations, while being on our guard against our bête noire Pakistan.