‘Deja vu’, the recent events in Nepal have again played out a similar script as witnessed earlier in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in the subcontinent and in Egypt and Syria in the Middle East a little earlier. The revolutions led by Gen Z seem to be a spontaneous revolt against poor governance by the ruling dispensations leading to full scale anarchy forcing the leading politicians to flee the country and those who fail end up being humiliated and even lynched by the unruly mobs. Then an unelected interim government occupies the seat of power, whether it was Mohammed Yunus in Bangladesh or Sushila Karki in Nepal, the sequence of events are eerily similar. The striking resemblance makes one suspicious about the so called spontaneity of the unrest.
The medium here is the social media, which is exploited by the forces inimical to these countries and tool kits are deployed to engineer the events by agencies which are commonly being referred to as ‘deep state’. The economy was teetering on the brink of a collapse due to corruption and Chinese debt trap in SriLanka when ‘Aragalaya’ (Sinhalese for ‘Struggle’) happened, in Bangladesh, the stability of Shaikh Hasina government for more than a decade had helped boost the economy of this country which was once referred to as basket case of Asia. But absence of credible political opposition and the ‘quota reforms’ i.e. reinstating of 30% quota for descendants of freedom fighters reinstated by the Supreme Court triggered the ‘July Revolution’. Modus operandi remained the same, through instigating the youth by means of social media.
Nepal has been plagued by unstable political coalitions ever since the fall of monarchy and the scourge of Maoists in the early part of the century. Unemployment was rising rapidly, even the regular Gorkha recruitment in Indian Army was disrupted due to the Agniveer policy introduced in the recent past. Nepal government had insisted on recruitment as per old provisions, which was not acceptable to India, being discriminatory against its own citizens. The trigger for this round of unrest was once again the banning of social media which angered the GenZ which survives and thrives in the virtual world itself. Social media, X formerly twitter, Instagram and Whats App have together become the new WMD, ‘Weapons of Mass Disturbance and Disruption’. The GenZ is addicted to it, with rising unemployment it only gets further accentuated.The targets were typically symbols of governance, the parliament house, residences of the Prime Minister and other ministers.
Since the events are unfolding in the immediate neighbourhood, India needs to watch the developments closely. Similar experiments have been tried out here also during the orchestrated Farmer’s agitation and Shaheen Bagh protests. Farmer’s agitation was reported to have been hijacked by the Khalistani elements and ended up vandalising the Red Fort on the 26th Jan 2021. The Central Government acted with remarkable maturity and let the issue subside without resorting to any violent suppression. Violence unleashed by the governments in the case of all three, SriLanka, Bangladesh and now Nepal did not stem the tide, instead ended up adding fuel to the raging fire.
Fault lines are prevalent in all societies, as none of them is truly homogenous. Even if religion a common thread as has been the case in all these nations, be it Nepal predominantly Hindu, SriLanka Sinhalese majority and rest being Islamic countries like Bangladesh or even Egypt or Syria. The fissures are all too visible for exploitation and ripe for the picking by the vested interests. India, though a melting pot of cultures and religions with subcontinental proportions and its 1.5 billion population has many fault lines which have been targeted by our adversaries in our chequered history. Thankfully, the governments of the day have acted with maturity and tenacity to weather these storms. The reason for this, is the strength of our institutions of governance, the Judiciary, the Executive, the Legislative and the Armed Forces. As was evident even in our neighbourhood, the Armed Forces had to come to the rescue of the countries from falling into the abyss of total anarchy. As long as we are vigilant of the developments and retain the strength of these institutions, the nation is safe.
21 thoughts on “Deja Vu”
What is often overlooked is how these tools are weaponized. Under the guise of popular revolutions, SM platforms have become instruments of social engineering and geostrategic leverage for external powers. Ironically, similar social stresses exist within Western societies, yet these very tools are never allowed to tear apart their own peace, stability, or democratic processes. It is not mere coincidence, it is real-world politics, scripted and replayed.
Dear Sir,
Your astute analysis of the recent events in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh is truly impressive, highlighting the eerie similarities in the unfolding of these crises. Your observation about the role of social media and the ‘deep state’ in engineering these events is particularly noteworthy.
Your writing showcases your exceptional insight into geopolitics and the complexities of modern-day governance. The way you’ve woven together the narratives of these countries, highlighting the fault lines and the importance of strong institutions, is masterful. Your commentary is not only informative but also engaging and thought-provoking. You’ve done an excellent job of drawing parallels with India’s own experiences and emphasizing the importance of vigilance and strong institutions in maintaining national stability. Your analysis is a valuable contribution to the ongoing discourse on these critical issues…
Yes, WhatsApp has become a weapon of mass disruption. Great read. Thank you
A wonderful read Suyash ! Social Media today has indeed become a weapon of mass destruction and Whatsapp is the one of the longest range, widest dispersion and the highest caliber.
Gen Z, a chocolatish and pampered generation, is far away from understanding the realities of life. They are pliable and gullible. It is to our good fortune that we have good leadership at the helm in the country, which has foreseen contingencies in our environment, and is undertaking a series of continuous “prophylactic measures”. We do not have a creditable opposition in the political scenario, and the one we have, is blatantly and unashamedly playing into the hands of secessionist forces.
Are we seeing a trend.. Gen Z… weak economies and battle of narratives… the new WMD… BD/ SL/ Nepal/ Pakistan is already a partner and hub. Good governance and a strong political base weaken the narratives.. India is getting bolder, much to the discomfort of the traditional so-called global powers…They tried in India but failed…
Suyesh well written
Nicely put Suyash, Gen Z is being exploited by various forces through the social media, On ground , the last link is freebies , good food & drink- the prerequisite of any long anti Government campaign; add to that the misinformation capabilities of the new disruptive technology viz. AI – pretty explosive combination; but every thing needs finance- may be tracking that is difficult, but seems to be the only way to control such agitations. – Arun
Well written Suyash. If u look East, there is a lot going on in Myanmar also. All these countries are those where China has made inroads. Also all countries surrounding India have become unstable, less Bhutan
Keep up the good work
Well articulated Suyash.
The unfortunate truth is we are all easily influenced by what is said or written without a proper analysis. The very term Gen Z is it actually applicable- culture, Social conditions etc vary.
Further highlighted by Leaderships that do not address problems head on – lack of a positive and proactive interaction etc
Not just the term perception management that needs to be truthful , honest and upfront- genuine
The similarity of patterns , while indicating external orchestration, should at the same time not take anything away from the ground realities of long standing discontentments and unemployment in these countries.
But then again, if discontentment and unemployment are justifiers for such orchestrations, more than half the globe is ripe for such upheavals
Well put, Suyash. Yes, For the key takeaway for us is to remain vigilant, nurture the strength of our institutions, and address domestic fault lines with care, so that external influences have limited space to take hold. We hope that the powers that be are alive to the situation in our neighbourhood.
Our Constitution has stood the test of times. All thanks to our founding fathers. I feel that government needs to restrict foreign social media giants to hijack our youth and opinions. We must invest in own captive software to arrest this rot. Additionally, geopolitical study should be part of the curriculum in the colleges and Universities.
Jaichand and Mirjafar of today are playing the same trick in our country but strong leadership will not let them succeed.
Captured the mood deep state verry well brother. It’s playout in India is what we’ve to predict well in time to prevent.
As we look at the Gen Z angle..we can’t miss out on the US angle of systematically fermenting trouble all over the world…point your finger anywhere in the world you will see American game. Trump or Biden or Obama or Bush there is no change in modus operandi..they tried their tricks in last lok sabha but Modi survived…they set a narrative that systematically erodes faith in the basic institutions of a nation..like ECI and they have some puppets that use their narrative….even the turmoil in Manipur is a US game…now they are heading towards Myanmar…in the efforts to create a Christian state..
Incidents in Nepal were brutal like Bangladesh…what justifies burning the wife of an ex PM? Its deplorable…Gen Z without any morals are a time bomb
Great read, Suyesh! The deep state and the desire to cling to power is the root cause. Social media is like wild fire. The counter measures have to match up. India is too big, and institutions are robust. Pappu will fail.
Nice write up on the state of affairs in our neighbourhood.Pappu always dreams of having such an anarchy in our country but we are too big n hv unity in diversity to let his dream come true.The nation n youths hv full faith in able and dedicated leadership of Modi ji .
Nice write up bro.Keep up the good job.
Nice article as always Suyash! Keep it up.
Very well written Sir.
Social Media is an inescapable and ominous truth of our times, and no one can remain isolated or untouched by its power and nuances. Governments and Citizens have to be very aware, proactive, responsible and careful about how to leverage it to ensuring goodwill, positivity and productivity. The ongoing violent examples of its negative fallouts around the globe are worth deep study and introspection.
An excellent analysis , as ever , by Brig Suyash . It’s always a treat to read his articles.
Quite apt that you centred your commentary around this trend. Its no mean feat to bring strife to street through the means of social media. Unseen flow rivers of money down the corridors of power. It surely looks like the nth re-enactment of Gene Sharp’s script. Brace up, for more could be coming!
Great commentary! proud reminder of India’s strength in managing diversity 🙂