Gaza, well the accord is signed by the warring parties, ceasefire brokered by Trump and the swap of prisoners and hostages have finally taken place. The world has heaved a huge sigh of relief, the madness which was unleashed on 7th Oct 2023 when Hamas launched a surprise assault killing 1195 personnel and 251 were taken as hostages. The brutal barbarism with which the civilians were killed and the treatment of the hostages was abhorrent and it was obvious that a tough reprisal from the Israelis would follow. But even in their wildest dreams the Hamas leadership and its backers had not imagined the ferocity and the prolonged duration of this conflict. The stated aim of Israel of total decimation of Hamas has still not been achieved despite a relentless offensive by the IDF for the last two years, but they have nevertheless inflicted almost crippling damage to the leadership not just of Hamas but also of Hezbollah and Houthis. In the bargain, as collateral damage the civilians in Gaza were subjected to unprecedented hardships, sometimes even food and medicines not making it through to the needy. Cleaning up Gaza for providing security to the Israelis had the tacit sanction of the US during Biden regime and was openly supported by Trump. How long will this truce last, is anybody’s guess.
Israel was blamed for human rights violations and committing genocide in Gaza, reminds me of the SriLankan Army action against LTTE, where too a similar kind of offensive was launched in 2008-09 after almost three decades of civil war like conditions in the Tamil dominated Northern and Eastern regions. Sri Lanka has steadfastly refused to allow any kind of international investigations of the alleged atrocities inflicted on the civilian casualties. Thankfully, the scourge of LTTE has been totally eliminated after the death of their supremo, Prabhakaran. I am not so sure about Hamas though, as although the top leadership has been delivered a knock out punch but there are remnants who may mushroom again. The other dissimilarity is that while LTTE was a terrorist organisation, but it did not flaunt any religious identity and demanded a separate Tamil Eelam, it was more ethnic and regional, whereas Hamas or Hezbollah or Houthis all are Islamic and their stated objective is total annihilation of Israel.
So are we comparing apples and oranges, actually no, the fact remains that any such conflict, is by nature extremely violent and civilians perforce have to suffer collateral damages. India by contrast, has not only displayed extreme caution in all such situations and despite grave provocations have demonstrated phenomenal restraint, so much so that we were labelled a soft state. India has had its share of insurgencies and terrorist attacks and still continue to be at the receiving end in Kashmir, relatively less in the NorthEast and even Naxalism in some parts. Patience has paid and also the winning hearts and minds strategy, through which we have harvested rich dividends. The similarity between situations in Israel and India is that both are plagued by cross border terrorism, which is religious in nature. Pakistan too has been practising the ‘death by thousand cuts’ strategy like the inimical neighbours of Israel who want to drive all the jews into the Dead Sea. While insurgency needs to be handled with care, as it is own population which is disaffected and some of their grievances may be genuine, but terror has to responded to in a tough, no nonsense manner, as has been done in the last decade or so. Of course, none of these guarantees absolute peace for all times to come, just that you may buy some time, till the lessons are forgotten for a fresh misadventure by the adversary.
However there are lessons, which we need to draw from the Israel-Hamas conflict, first and foremost is that never let your guard down, the 7th Oct terror attack was a result of gross intelligence failure. We have to be extra alert in view of the adversaries in the neighbourhood and the presence of a large number of fifth columnists within our boundaries. Secondly, treating the symptoms doesn’t work, the root cause has to be tackled, as seen in OP SINDOOR. They must realise that the costs of any such misdemeanour are prohibitive and hence they better mend their ways. Alternately, as Godfather would say, “Make them an offer they can’t refuse!”
11 thoughts on “GAZA:LESSONS FOR INDIA”
The sujugular at work again. Very nicely analysed and penned as always. It makes a lots of sense to be ever vigilant
A very nicely covered latest topic with relevant reference to Indian context and LTTE .It’s a great to read these blogs .Many of us keenly look forward for these blogs .Thanks Suyash keep writing
As usual a very comprehensive and apt exposition by you Suyash. Thanks for keeping us abreast with all the happening around
This has topped yhe morning news charts for two years. Anyone thinking it is resolved needs to think again. The root cause is still a horizon away. On a different note, intelligence is the essence of today’s shrunk OODA loops. Any extra dollar there is justified.
Great read
Very well covered Sir. What a shame – Terrorist Organisation Hamas earned legitimacy by trading Israeli hostages dead and alive, with the overt approval of UN, UK, European and Arab nations ! Never Again, Israel needs no complacency ever again. Best wishes for more interesting write ups from you Sir.
Wise lessons brought out Suyash. An apt comparison between the actions against the LTTE and Hamas. Thank you
A good summing – up, Suyash. Thanks for the insights. I would step back to see a big, blurry picture: The region has historically been a bristling borderline of the clash of civilizations. This heritage makes for temperamental nature and violence-prone relationships. The sight of carnage and wanton destruction in Gaza may be swept away (to be replaced by a Mediterranean Riviera after all?) but these fresh deep wounds will stay much longer, seeding new paroxysms of ruinous violence pumping fresh cycles of violence. I hope and pray there will be time for healing this aggravating sepsis and break the pattern.
Well-written article on a burning topic in world affairs.
I loved the analogy you drew with the LTTE scenario and how you skillfully maneuvered it into the Indian context.
The finale, too, is satirical in its own way!
Insightful piece, Suyash.
Your analysis of Gaza’s lessons resonates well with India’s own deterrence dynamics. For deterrence to hold, the three Cs…”Capability, Credibility, and Communication”…remain indispensable. While absolute capability may take time to mature, intelligent calibration of credibility and communication can offset marginal gaps.
For India, facing a sustained two-front challenge, the real test lies in ensuring that every act of vigilance, response, and articulation of intent reinforces credibility. Deterrence is ultimately about perception…not just what we possess, but what the adversary believes we are ready and resolved to use.
Hence, for India, bolstering credibility through readiness and quick response, and communication through clear signalling backed by action, is the surest way to keep deterrence intact amid a volatile neighbourhood.
An excellent comparison of the LTTE and Hamas dynamics, their peculiarities, similarities, signatures, effects and the geo politics at play ! The lessons learnt have been aptly brought out, and we need to take cognizance thereof for our own security. This article reminded me of a brilliant article penned by Maj Gen PJS Sandhu in the USI Journal, in which he brought out striking similarities in between our Chinese debacle of 1962 (NEFA Sector) with a battle fought by the Americans in the Korean War in the early 1950s.
Nice job there Suyash!