GREENLAND NOT A LA LA LAND

Is Greenland the latest toy which has got the fancy of this kid Don, after having caught Maduro in his favourite game of ‘I spy’? It appears so, the brat knows it can bully, throw tantrums and get anything that he wants. EU has almost succumbed, only China has had the guts to look him in the eye and no surprises, it has been spared the blushes. India too has been defiant, but since we do not have the heft, we have been at the receiving end. Although, he has been professing his friendship with PM Modi all the while when he has been burdening us with additional tariffs thrown our way.

So why Greenland, that is the question, when it will definitely wreck the NATO and that would in a way be playing into the hands of arch rivals Russia? US interests In Greenland is not something which Trump has suddenly dreamt about, way back in 1946 President Truman had intended to buy it from Kingdom of Denmark for  $100 million, having realised its geo-strategic significance in the Arctic. During the Second World War too Greenland was occupied by US troops and acted as a major Submarine choke point along with Iceland and UK. Since 1951 US has had its military bases in Greenland as part of NATO.

Greenland is rich in resources with a sparse population of just about 58000, with its per capita GDP also around $58000. The resources include Rare Earth Minerals like Lithium, estimated Oil and Gas reserves worth 31 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE, the amount of energy contained in one barrel of oil), fresh water and fisheries. With the rise in global temperatures the sea routes in Arctic will also be more navigable, thus making Greenland a critical asset. It is being sought by Trump, not as a trophy but primarily for extending his reach and control in the Arctic. But can he not do this under the current arrangements rather than infringe on their sovereignty and jeopardise NATO itself? He can but then Trump’s offer of outright financial transaction  for the island is not a novel one either with acquisition of Alaska from Russia in 1867 and Woodrow Wilson’s purchase in 1917 of US Virgin Islands from Denmark itself as precedences.

How are the global powers effected by this turn of events, well obviously there is widespread criticism by all, but the reactions are so far muted and even those  by Denmark and European NATO nations have been purely notional in the form of increasing their military presence, which can hardly be described as show of force. India is keenly watching the developments, as although, it has not evinced any interests in the Arctic, being Indo-Pacific centric primarily, but such an acquisition may embolden China into initiating similar actions in island territories in the Atlantic or the Indian Ocean as well, is the major cause of worry. Moreover the global order which is facing turbulence at the moment may end up in a free for all, a situation akin to pre World War 1 when the colonial powers were busy acquiring new colonies. The multi-polarity in the world which is actively being pursued by India and other major nations will be given a quiet burial with pronounced US hegemony making it a unipolar one again.

What are the options with Greenland Denmark or the NATO? Firstly Greenland may offer US more bases and freedom to explore minerals still maintaining a semblance of its sovereignty, failing which it will be at the mercy of the US. Denmark may not get much of a say despite being the controlling nation, as  Greenland enjoys autonomy and may choose its own path. NATO itself may have to finally acquiesce as it is neither in a position to confront the US militarily nor diplomatically. They may resort to some face saving gestures though, getting Greenland to pass the resolution in favour, thereby accepting people’s mandate.

Will US actually benefit in the short term by this action, highly unlikely, long term may be, but the major gain is signalling to China as also NATO as to who calls the shots in the global arena. China still has at least a decade before it can pose any kind of challenge to US, so this is the moment which Trump is keen to seize, which may end up delaying China’s rise as well. So Greenland is no La la land for Trump, the pursuit is serious.