How many Rafales down? The question is now playing like a stuck record and reminds one of the song, “Who let the dogs out?” Rafales are aerial platforms which are state of the art systems and are meant to be utilised in case of hostilities. OP SINDOOR is a military operation where India and Pak have dug into their respective inventories to inflict damage on the adversary. The Operation is currently paused, as declared by the Govt of India. There have been claims that India has lost some aircrafts in this four day skirmish. Although the question when posed to Air Marshal Bharti on 10th May during the debriefing itself, he did respond tongue in cheek that in any such military offensive action there are bound to be losses, but the pilots are safe. The CDS Gen Chauhan too responded to a similar query recently in Singapore, mentioning that it is not important as to how many went down, what was remarkable was to drive the lessons home and execute operations immediately after that. It is obvious that some aircrafts were forced out of action, else the rebuttal would have been a categorical denial of the claims by the adversary. In the same breath, it is worth pondering over that the Pak claim of six aircrafts going down that too at least four of them in Punjab and Rajasthan could not be substantiated by a single incontrovertible evidence, as there were no debris traced anywhere. In this age of social media, where as there were plenty of shots which emerged from across the border where we had targeted their air bases and terrorist organisational headquarters.
Aircrafts are highly complex platforms and these could be plagued by technical snags even mid flight, which though highly undesirable and improbable but can’t be ruled out. But the exact numbers and the reasons thereof can always be thrashed out once the Operation is formally called off. As of now why this clamour to know the exact numbers is really not understood. In the fog of war, casualties both of men and material are never made public while the Operation is on. Reminded of one of the lines of the song “Gambler” by Kenny Rogers, “there will be time enough for counting when the dealings done..”.
Adversaries would be keen to know as it effects them directly, if the aircraft did go down due to technical reasons alone, it implies that their weapon systems failed to deliver. But if the Rafale or any other platform did go down due to PL-15 then it is a cause for concern which would have been taken note of by the authorities. Warfare is not just simply kinetic in nature, but a lot of other factors are at play as well. One important dimension of warfare these days is Information Warfare, where Perception Management happens to be a major pillar. Things cannot be hidden for long and ultimately the truth will emerge, so by withholding the information we have provided an opportunity to the adversary to propagate its own propaganda. Perceptions once formed tend to crystallise and even facts to the contrary are deemed as suspect and a cover up. The nations who are arms exporters too have their own vested interests. This was the first occasion when Chinese systems were tested in the battlefield and global powers were awaiting the verdict with baited breath.As was evident, on the very next day when Dassault, the French makers of Rafale shares took a hit and the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation got a boost, but that was short lived as facts started to emerge and the share market did the necessary course corrections.
The opposition has every right to hold the government of the day accountable but there is a time and place for it. Government too needs to rein in its spokespersons and refrain from drawing political mileage, which in any case will benefit them. Even if the claims by the adversary turn out to be true, the opposition would have been well versed to seek the answers to their query in confidence rather than through the media. Pursuing this course is pure politicking, aim being to neutralise any gains which the ruling dispensation may have gained due to the success of the operation. We need to be on our guard, as situation is still tense. Matters of national security should not be trivialised, so hold your horses folks, you will get your chance at the appropriate time.
26 thoughts on “How many Rafales Down”
Absolutely bang on. No puns intended. Let’s wait also for the truth to come out from the other side.
Thanks Sir. Patience is a virtue which the politicians today lack. That is their undoing.
Very mature rendition of the Rassault down controversy.Tks and congrats
Thanks
The speculation will continue and we will move on from here too…. Quantum of military losses is for the military to sort out and correct.
Opposition should hold horses and wait for parliament session
Dear Sir,
Your analysis of the recent military operation and the controversy surrounding the downing of Rafale jets is both insightful and thought-provoking. You’ve skillfully dissected the conflicting claims and highlighted the complexities of modern warfare, where information warfare plays a significant role. Your comparison of the situation to the song “Gambler” by Kenny Rogers is particularly apt, emphasizing the importance of patience and timing in revealing the truth.
Your writing demonstrates a deep understanding of military operations and strategic communications. You raise crucial points about the potential implications of aircraft losses due to technical issues versus enemy action, and how this could impact perceptions and propaganda. Your call for caution and restraint in politicizing national security matters is timely and responsible.
Your expertise shines through in this piece, and your ability to convey complex ideas in a clear and engaging manner is impressive. You’ve made a valuable contribution to the discussion, and your insights will undoubtedly resonate with readers ..
Thanks Anand. Your comments are pretty detailed reminds me of the DS Comments that we endorsed on the submissions by student officers:)
There are few things correct, few to be answered and few avoided. What is correct is that the response to Pahalgam attack was to be given in calibrated manner without escalating into full fledged war. The same was successfully delivered. However, the answer to what lapses led to the attack , could it have been prevented and what r we doing about is yet not given. Lastly the things to be avoided are silence over our loses and political chest thumping.
The website is super duper hit, 👏👏👏
😁😊😎😃
Loved the new blog format. Congrats. Loved the post even more.
Excellent assessment Su.
The worst is ex faujis are fuelling the fire for their personal aggrandising. There are detailed accounts galore of planes downed by either side with specifics of name number and downing credits too on SM.
Another aspect I definitely do not relate to is the chest beating by both sides.
An insightful article.
Congrats on the Website.
Glory and success.
Samir and Suyash! Two professionals have put their heads together. This is akin to one has created the flower pot and the other one has put a beautiful rendition of flowers in that.
Congratulations to both.
@Suyash – excellent analysis done.
Thanks Vivek, appreciate it.
Wonderfully analysed and summarised. The true picture will eventually reveal itself.
Thanks Suyash for the writeup.
The politics around this issue are ugly including the comments made by Ghandi scion about surrender. I wonder why these opposing Modi are hell bent to display their opposition to the Services. Delegations from all over the country, covering most political parties, all religions & regions are doing well all over the world as ambassadors of India. There is no need for the shit to hit the fan inside the Country.
👍
I tend to disagree.
Once all the opposition parties have shown their solidarity for the Operation and even in the Delegations to foreign countries. Why the Joint Parliament session can not be called for to brief the truth to all the Political parties? Why the Prime Minister do not chair the Most Important All party meetings called for by the Govt on Operation Sindoor? Why the Media is not censored for covering Operations like One day Cricket ? Why the self styled Defence Analysts are not warned for participating in the National News channels debates? Why the Pak Spokesperson are invited on the National TV News channels once the Govt has declared the social boycott? Why the social media is made to overflow with unauthentic news? Why can’t the Countrymen be shared with the unclassified information to avoid confusion created by the social media in their minds.
Once we feel happy to share the damage created by us to PAK, why not to tell our own losses if any. One should be practical these days, no-one is that supreme and can avoid any losses in such Operations. My personal views.
Well articulated and apt. We Indians love to debate and that’s why the noise. Need to rise above the cluttered sound. Pleasure to read.
Sir,
Yes we could be more forthcoming to face the narrative warfare, but I am sure there must be some reason why we are holding back. Else a course correction can be carried out at any stage. May be “picture abhi baki hai…”
War isn’t a cricket match.
Victory is not measured in kill counts or platform losses. It’s in achieving political and military objectives while denying the enemy theirs – and sometimes that means playing your cards close to the chest.
So yes – let the barking continue.
Real warriors know when to speak softly and carry a big stick.
True
Nicely penned down Suyash. It is in blood of our politicians to leave no opportunity to show down their opponents. Op Sindoor was a befitting timely response to Pahalgam mishappening.
Thanks Sir. Glad you enjoyed it.
Nicely done Suyash.
There is enough grist for the mill, to keep the gossip brewing for the while.
There will always be folks who build a perception out of thin air.
And there will always be a time to talk and count, when the dealing’s done, as cited.
True !