Iranian Imbroglio

Why did US and Israel go to war in Iran, when the negotiations were in advanced stage and it is reliably learnt that they were pretty close to a deal? Ever since Trump returned to power, the war was imminent and the early indications were evident all along. Since 1979, Iran has been the nemesis of the US, when Shah of Iran, a stooge of the Americans, was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution. Iranian  resilience is legendary, having survived the eight years long Iran-Iraq war, despite the overt and covert support of the West. It is the inheritor of the rich Persian civilisation. But the story actually began sometime in 1953  when US indulged in now quite infamous ‘regime change’ operation, orchestrated a coup and deposed the democratically elected popular Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh, because of his decision to nationalise their British controlled oil industry and installed Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi on the throne.

US was made to eat a humble pie after the Tehran hostage crisis of 1979, which lasted 444 days and cost Jimmy Carter his presidency. Iran has been at the receiving end of US led sanctions since then. It has not only survived all that, but has been waging a proxy war through Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis targeting the US and Western interests in the Middle East.  Israel has been a thorn in the flesh for the Mullahs of Iran and they have vowed to destroy the Zionist state in totality. The rest of the Arab world has been brought around by the Americans to accept some sort of adjustment with Israel, except the Iranians and hence the concern about the Iranian nuclear programme. A nuclear powered Iran spells disaster for Israel and in the bargain for the Western hegemony in the region. Israel has been itching to neutralise this threat once and for all, however  US has been reticent and cautious all this while, because the administration was aware of the mess it may end up in. 

This time around Bibi and the powerful Jewish lobby in US administration  seem to have convinced Trump that all that was needed was the elimination of the top leadership of Iran and the cookie will crumble, as the masses are themselves fed up with this brutal dictatorial regime. The leadership was eliminated, but the regime has survived so far, and there are no indications that it anywhere near a total collapse. It turned out to be a grave miscalculation, as the war is now in its third week and there are no signs of any fatigue visible in the Iranian response. Iran obviously has not been surprised by the turn of events, as their neighbourhood has been targeted in the last two decades or so with Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Syria meeting the same fate of regime change and ensuing anarchy. Having been a witness to these happenings, they have been quietly preparing for this eventuality. So they systematically targeted the US bases in the region along with Israel in the first phase, then they decided to choke the Strait of Hormuz, thereby sending ripples around the rest of the world as well. If the war drags on longer, these ripples can turn into tsunamis, which may end up drowning many of the smaller economies of the world. 

In today’s era where economies of the world are globalised and intertwined, this blocking of Strait of Hormuz has implications way beyond just oil. With oil prices shooting through the roof and supply of LPG severely affected, which will end up in hyperinflation in smaller economies. The other major sectors likely to be effected in the near term are agriculture, as nitrogen based fertilisers need gas, semiconductor industry, which needs helium, another byproduct of petrochemicals industry, plastic, resins and packaging material.

India is also being affected by the shortage of LPG in the short term, if the war continues for a considerably longer period, our economy will also face headwinds. Global supply chain disruption will cause mayhem in almost all the sectors. 

What is the end state of this current imbroglio, as it is evident that Iran is not exactly suing for peace, Trump’s call for support to ease the blockage of Strait of Hormuz has not been heeded to by NATO countries, nor China. Signs are ominous, an off ramp is required for US to call off the offensive, which doesn’t seem to be available as of now. Knowing the unpredictable nature of Trump, it may just happen as suddenly as it began, with him announcing that they have achieved their aims of denuclearising Iran, as he did last time around having bombed Iranian nuclear facilities and claiming to have decimated them. That may end the war as of now, but peace will still remain elusive.