We are in the eighth week of this highly avoidable US-Israel offensive against Iran and despite some efforts towards a negotiated peace deal, there doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of this tunnel yet. As predicted by this author, “President Trump will declare victory and seek cessation of hostilities on his own terms at the beginning of this conflict” in my column “Iran Imbroglio”, he is playing to the script. Thereafter, his threat of wiping out the civilisation was a veiled threat of resorting to go nuclear was essentially to nudge Iran towards signing the deal on American terms. To be fair to US and Trump, they have had Iran on their crosshairs and have been trying to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran since 1979. But before commencing this conflict they had not counted on the resilience of Iranians and hence the current logjam.
This disastrous conflict is wreaking havoc not only on Iran and the West Asia in particular, but the world as a whole for obvious reasons, i.e. global energy dependence on this geographical entity. So far Iran has played his cards deftly, having caused turbulence in the GCC nations with their selective targeting of the US bases in the region, as also controlling the maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US-Israel duo needed a quick conflict termination, which has been succesfully averted and the stage is set for what could turn into a prolonged war. US record of all such conflicts has been very poor, be it Vietnam or Afghanistan. They have finally turned their tails and withdrawn without even a face saver. Iranians are counting on that, but this time they are demanding their pound of flesh, before they let the Yanks off.
The million dollar question is will the two finally tango or will it be yet another case of TACO (Trump always Chickens out). Let us understand as to why Iranians will not throw in the towel, they have suffered enormous damage to their armed forces, as also to their civilian infrastructure but their clergy led regime is very much in tact and so are the institutions such as IRGC. The American terms demand a total surrender, whereby Iran sacrifices its enriched Uranium and freezes its nuclear ambition for 20 years and in return gets precious little. Negotiations are based on ‘give and take’ but Trump’s art of cutting a deal is to make unreasonable demands right at the outset, so that the rival party is prepared to accept terms which are favourable to Trump, as was evident in his Tariff diplomacy. Iran though is a different kettle of fish, for them it is a battle of survival and a surrender on American terms will be the end of this regime. So Iranians are currently placed in a ‘do or die’ scenario, where, they are disrupting the maritime traffic through Strait of Hormuz, thus forcing the global powers to push the Americans to bring this war to a closure at the earliest as world economy is on a downward spiral hurtling towards its doom if this situation prevails for long. A prolonged conflict will be disastrous for US taxpayer also, apart form the highly avoidable bodybags which is surely a recipe for disaster for the Republicans in the coming Mid Term elections in November.
Why does a nation surrender? We saw that Pakistan surrendered in 1971, when they were defeated in the minds not just on the battlefield. They could have held on for another couple of weeks, but the air strike on the East Pakistan Governor’s house in Dhaka drove them to immediate capitulation. Here in Iran, despite the loss of their top political and military hierarchy, they have not only survived but have waged an effective strategic battle forcing the adversary to shelve their stated aim of regime change and negotiate. In this war, it appears that at the time of conflict termination Americans may not be successful in their stated aims, then despite the damage inflicted on Iran, the battle of perception would be won by Iran. The sole global superpower and the regional power in West Asia would have been forced to eat a humble pie, thus increasing the stature of Iran in the geo-strategic affairs in West Asia. Israel would face the heat as Hezbollah would not just be surviving but would still be a force to reckon with, so would the Houthis. So this conflict per se, may not end with any negotiated peace deal in the near future, but the intensity of strikes may reduce considerably, the Strait may continue to be policed by both US and Iran, before finally it is TACO time.
8 thoughts on “It’s TACO Time”
Very nicely articulated Suyash!
It is clear that Trump thinks and rightfully so, he can inflict far more damage on IRGC’s economy with blocakdaing Iranian ships than by more bombing.
There is nothing that few more weeks of bombing wood fetch that 6 weeks didn’t.
The war is very much on— but in the non-kinetic fashion.
The first question is — how far is Trump prepared to factor in the impact on his allies’ and partners’ interests as a concomitant. While Trump can get away with chaos much more than any American president in history, a decisive strategic outcome of the war has to emerge.
The second point – IRGC doesn’t control the Hormuz, it has the capacity to disrupt it. And for that the US has not been able to do much.
They have the capacity to confiscate other ships, but not American.
But again, Iran isn’t able to let its own ships pass , nor do anything for confiscated Iranian ships apart from launching drones with no information on what damage they incurred to the US assets.
IRGC is in bad shape. For them any shape works as long as regime survives .
Doesn’t work for the US though.
Very well articulated
I think his aim is also to have moderate regime in Iran. For on other issues, he will bargain.!!
The outcome of the war is difficult to predict at the moment. The Americans and Israelis were hoping for a quick victory by decimating the top Iranian leadership. That has not happened. Iranians are battle hardy and will not give up easily. Americans bank on their top class military equipment for winning wars. While I ran has suffered a lot bit their will to fight is intact. A tough job for Trump lies ahead.
Very well written Sir. How soon would Iran capitulate in the face of Super Power USA remains to be seen in the coming days/weeks, inspite of the indomitable front put up by them. Knee jerk actions/reactions and many self goals by the US have no method to madness. The Gulf States have however been given a rude awakening and they are coming to terms with it. Hope some lessons are learnt by us from the Russia-Ukraine and the US/Israel-Iran Wars.
US never planned an end state they thought Iran will be Iraq but they were looking at the wrong side of barrel. Trump understands money for him and tries work up the MAGA which never worked. He had managed to anger the allies and unwittingly got a term for US – untrustworthy.
superbly articulated . please keep it doing.
A good package, Suyash.
While licking their wounds, countries in West Asia and around the Persian Gulf (as Arabian as the Gulf of Mexico is of America!) must be rethinking their situation: the insecurities manipulated for decades by US-Israel lobbies, the expensive and counter-productive defence deals. Anyway, Uncle Trump has uncorked the genie and the choice now is either to TACO it or LEAVO it! That Israelity 🙂